Wednesday, August 10, 2005
What Got the Ball Rolling
I've said before on this blog that I believe the root cause of 9/11 to be the Russian Revolution and the rise of the Soviet Union. Their desire for world domination led to the cold war, which was a main factor in causing the United States to support autocratic dictatorships in the Middle East (and around the world). The global chess game that ran all over the world for 50 years artificially kept the Islamic world from having a chance at true reform and liberalization. The Arab Street was born, as was the Islamic fighters in Afghanistan. The message of violent jihad is accepted by more and more, and Islamic terrorist attacks rise dramatically. Before you know it, you have two skyscrapers knocked down and over 3000 dead. Too late to turn back the clock without paying the piper, as it were. I know this oversimplifies things (Muslim Brotherhood and the disestablishment of the Turkish caliphate, anyone?), but I believe this to be the root, and everything else just fed into that, helping it grow in size and intensity.
Last week, Donald Sensing wrote an interesting post on WindsOfChange.NET, noting the anniversary of the beginning of the Great War -- World War I. He linked to a post he made back in 2003 on his own blog that I'd never seen before. It was a thought experiment about what might have happened if Germany would have won WWI instead of the Allies. He points to one fateful decision by the German chief of staff Helmuth von Moltke, that made differently, might have changed the outcome of the war dramatically. He then goes on to look at the aftermath of the war, and then how differently the world might've looked if Herr von Moltke made a different decision.
His conclusion, obviously up to much dissection and disagreement, is that the 9/11 attacks would never have happened:
- The rise fascism in Italy and of Nazism in Germany,
- The rise of a communist Soviet Union, although the Czar would likely have been deposed eventually (more likely, would have become a figurehead monarch along the lines of Britain's)
- World War II in Europe, and probably not in Asia. Japan would still have had imperial ambitions, but they would not have brought the world into conflict, and perhaps not the US.
- Hence, no Cold War and none of its attendant ravages
- A much less powerful United States, but one still secure and free
- No communist China
- No Vietnam War
- No Korean War
- No free and democratic Japan
- No Holocaust
- Hence, no establishment of the state of Israel
- Hence, no history of war, conflict and terrorism in the Middle East
- No Iranian Islamic revolution,
- Hence, no rise of modern radical Islamism
- Hence no 9/11/01 attacks.
Interesting. I do think that the series of changes he lists plays up the existance of Israel too much, and downplays the role of the cold war in the creation of the current Middle East character too much. Still, it's a mighty provocativee thought experiment.